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Made In America
From Scottish Parts
Another Slam Dunk!
9:19 pm, 1/19/05
Whenever a CIA report throws out a few possibilities for Iraq, if one of them is even remotely negative, headlines scream "CIA: Iraq doomed!".
So why is it that we don't hear a peep about the CIA's prediction that the European Union will collapse within 15 years?
In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: "The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role."Hmm. They just now figure this out?
Update: The comment was so good, I had to change the title.
Adamant at 07:35 AM, 1/20/05
Considering the accuracy of US Intel over the past few years, I suggest we all invest heavily in the Euro.
Considering the accuracy of US Intel over the past few years, I suggest we all invest heavily in the Euro.
at 08:51 AM, 1/20/05
Given the CIA past record of prediction, say on the USSR, I'd be hesitant to plan my life around this.
In fact it make me question the whole idea, which hitherto I had some sympathy for.
Given the CIA past record of prediction, say on the USSR, I'd be hesitant to plan my life around this.
In fact it make me question the whole idea, which hitherto I had some sympathy for.
Aaron at 08:55 AM, 1/20/05
In fact it make me question the whole idea, which hitherto I had some sympathy for.$10 says they've taken to reading blogs in the hopes of finally getting one right.
Patrick Carroll at 09:14 AM, 1/20/05
Having grown up in Ireland, I've occasionally thought about retiring there. I've always dismissed it as a pipe-dream, as land prices have been going through the roof ever since Ireland really started taking advantage of the EU.
This CIA report gives me some reason for hope.
It's obvious to me that the EU can't hold. It looks like an attempt at a federal United States of Europe, but it's actually the French putting Europe back to where it was in about 1680. The Brits hate the French and the Irish; the Spanish hate the Portugese; everyone has contempt for the Italians; the Germans, well, let's face it, four words: "Land war in Europe." And all this love is returned with interest. The currency is up for whatever dodgy game the French think will help them get ahead. There's no common language. Rules and regulations are set by an unelected bureaucracy in Brussels. Reports of fraud by Inspectors General are dealt with harshly, in that the IG gets fired. The Arabs are taking over. Meanwhile, no politician has the will to deal with reality.
I've no doubt that the EU will collapse, sooner rather than later, and when it does there will be dislocation like we saw in Germany in the 1930s. Afterwards, we'll see a number of looser federations. One will be centered on Germany and include Holland, the Scandanavian countries, and bits of Eastern Europe (the rest of Eastern Europe will fall into Russia's orbit.) Another will be centered on France, and include the mediterranean countries. England will go it "alone," falling back on its commonwealth and the United States - the emerging anglosphere.
Ireland? Well, as usual, Ireland will be screwed (again). Culturally the Irish have more in common with France, but communications with the continent do involve crossing water. Historically, Ireland's an English colony and England is Ireland's biggest trading partner. Then there's Northern Ireland. Ireland wanted to join the a federal United States of Europe in order to become wealthy and liberal enough to overcome protestant objections to reunion. Well, Ireland may have become quite liberal, but a collapse of the EU makes puts the wealth in doubt. It's in England's interest to keep Ireland weak and in its orbit, so Ireland will get little help there.
Ultimately, Europe will fall back into historical patterns, and Ireland will start to look like it was in the 1950s: divided, occasionally violent, poor, rural, agrarian, and a net exporter of people.
There's a piece of land near Achill that I might just go after. When the walls come tumbling down, that is.
Having grown up in Ireland, I've occasionally thought about retiring there. I've always dismissed it as a pipe-dream, as land prices have been going through the roof ever since Ireland really started taking advantage of the EU.
This CIA report gives me some reason for hope.
It's obvious to me that the EU can't hold. It looks like an attempt at a federal United States of Europe, but it's actually the French putting Europe back to where it was in about 1680. The Brits hate the French and the Irish; the Spanish hate the Portugese; everyone has contempt for the Italians; the Germans, well, let's face it, four words: "Land war in Europe." And all this love is returned with interest. The currency is up for whatever dodgy game the French think will help them get ahead. There's no common language. Rules and regulations are set by an unelected bureaucracy in Brussels. Reports of fraud by Inspectors General are dealt with harshly, in that the IG gets fired. The Arabs are taking over. Meanwhile, no politician has the will to deal with reality.
I've no doubt that the EU will collapse, sooner rather than later, and when it does there will be dislocation like we saw in Germany in the 1930s. Afterwards, we'll see a number of looser federations. One will be centered on Germany and include Holland, the Scandanavian countries, and bits of Eastern Europe (the rest of Eastern Europe will fall into Russia's orbit.) Another will be centered on France, and include the mediterranean countries. England will go it "alone," falling back on its commonwealth and the United States - the emerging anglosphere.
Ireland? Well, as usual, Ireland will be screwed (again). Culturally the Irish have more in common with France, but communications with the continent do involve crossing water. Historically, Ireland's an English colony and England is Ireland's biggest trading partner. Then there's Northern Ireland. Ireland wanted to join the a federal United States of Europe in order to become wealthy and liberal enough to overcome protestant objections to reunion. Well, Ireland may have become quite liberal, but a collapse of the EU makes puts the wealth in doubt. It's in England's interest to keep Ireland weak and in its orbit, so Ireland will get little help there.
Ultimately, Europe will fall back into historical patterns, and Ireland will start to look like it was in the 1950s: divided, occasionally violent, poor, rural, agrarian, and a net exporter of people.
There's a piece of land near Achill that I might just go after. When the walls come tumbling down, that is.
peterg22 at 09:54 AM, 1/20/05
As a token European (i'm British, and old enough to be bitter) i'd probably go along with this. The EU is still the "them and us" club, and let's face it, the Brits are still B-list, waiting by the door while the mainland Europeans get the red-carpet treatment.
The dilution of the so-called union by the introduction of what can only be described as economically-challenged freeloaders will indeed help to destroy the union. The rich kids will only bail out their new poor friends for so long before economic reality (I.e. hardships) at home star to bite. That coupled with some MEPs who are not only unable to make it in the "U"K, have now been promoted to screwing up the EU as well. When was the last time a British MEP actually made a genuine contribution that was announced on UK TV ? I can't remember one - all I ever hear is the subsidy we're going to have pay the latest lame-duck member-state farmers when our own farmers are going out of business on a daily basis, or something of that ilke. I was actually a real believer in the EU when I was younger, but not any more.
The ageing population thing is interesting. When I'm old enough to qualify for that classification I'll be freeloading along with the rest, because our government will have made state pensions a thing of the past. It'll have run out of money subsidising the EU and my company pension probably won't buy me diddly squat. Either that or I'll never actually get to retire because the economy's screwed and I have to work until I drop, as our government has publicly suggested.
Having said all that though, surely the US isn't immune ? It would appear that your welfare system is as wobbly as ours and I'm sure that you guys would complain a LOT more than we Brits ever would :-) Would the CIA dare to publish what it reckons is in store for you ?
As a token European (i'm British, and old enough to be bitter) i'd probably go along with this. The EU is still the "them and us" club, and let's face it, the Brits are still B-list, waiting by the door while the mainland Europeans get the red-carpet treatment.
The dilution of the so-called union by the introduction of what can only be described as economically-challenged freeloaders will indeed help to destroy the union. The rich kids will only bail out their new poor friends for so long before economic reality (I.e. hardships) at home star to bite. That coupled with some MEPs who are not only unable to make it in the "U"K, have now been promoted to screwing up the EU as well. When was the last time a British MEP actually made a genuine contribution that was announced on UK TV ? I can't remember one - all I ever hear is the subsidy we're going to have pay the latest lame-duck member-state farmers when our own farmers are going out of business on a daily basis, or something of that ilke. I was actually a real believer in the EU when I was younger, but not any more.
The ageing population thing is interesting. When I'm old enough to qualify for that classification I'll be freeloading along with the rest, because our government will have made state pensions a thing of the past. It'll have run out of money subsidising the EU and my company pension probably won't buy me diddly squat. Either that or I'll never actually get to retire because the economy's screwed and I have to work until I drop, as our government has publicly suggested.
Having said all that though, surely the US isn't immune ? It would appear that your welfare system is as wobbly as ours and I'm sure that you guys would complain a LOT more than we Brits ever would :-) Would the CIA dare to publish what it reckons is in store for you ?
at 10:13 AM, 1/20/05
Mixed emotions!
The vindictive side of me welcomes the implosion of the EU because of current circumstances (Iraq, UN, etc.), but it saddens me at the same time. I am saddened because I believe in the values of (dare I say supremecy?) of Western Civilization. When I think of the great thinkers like Locke, St. Thomas Aquinas, Voltaire, Hobbes, Smith, et al, it pains me to root for the continent to fail. But, then I reflect on how Europe has actively worked against an ally (US) in the pusuit of commonly held values regarding individual liberty.
Now, having just iterated goals of individual liberty, I find myself in a quandary because Europe has mistakenly embraced SOCIALISM. What a bankrupt, misery-enducing system of mediocrity. Nothing else need be said; socialism is a recipe for disaster and Europe is will continue to descend. Things will get much worse.
Additional cause for my concern is my deminishing faith in the Central Intelligence Agency. I consider myself "patriot", but the CIA has been politicized beyond belief. I think it is valid to question their "product" when compared to past failures (Berlin Wall, 9/11, etc.) It must be said, in fairness, that we only hear about failures and rarely hear about successes....what to believe?
Final point; the Europeans are going to fail because they have allowed politcal correctness to dominate their immigration policies. They, like the US on its southern border, are being invaded by a hostile (culturally speaking) population. They are about to "liberalize" themselves out of existence. I believe immigration is good for a nation/culture; new blood keeps things stimulated. The current immigration trends for the EU, and, yes, the US, are entirely out of control. I need rain, I don't need a flood!
The lesson for Americans is to NOT replicate the self-destructive behavior of the Europeans. America must not emulate the labor, legal, foreign policy, and multi-cultural policies of the EU. America must focus on being competitive and successful in all arenas.
Mixed emotions!
The vindictive side of me welcomes the implosion of the EU because of current circumstances (Iraq, UN, etc.), but it saddens me at the same time. I am saddened because I believe in the values of (dare I say supremecy?) of Western Civilization. When I think of the great thinkers like Locke, St. Thomas Aquinas, Voltaire, Hobbes, Smith, et al, it pains me to root for the continent to fail. But, then I reflect on how Europe has actively worked against an ally (US) in the pusuit of commonly held values regarding individual liberty.
Now, having just iterated goals of individual liberty, I find myself in a quandary because Europe has mistakenly embraced SOCIALISM. What a bankrupt, misery-enducing system of mediocrity. Nothing else need be said; socialism is a recipe for disaster and Europe is will continue to descend. Things will get much worse.
Additional cause for my concern is my deminishing faith in the Central Intelligence Agency. I consider myself "patriot", but the CIA has been politicized beyond belief. I think it is valid to question their "product" when compared to past failures (Berlin Wall, 9/11, etc.) It must be said, in fairness, that we only hear about failures and rarely hear about successes....what to believe?
Final point; the Europeans are going to fail because they have allowed politcal correctness to dominate their immigration policies. They, like the US on its southern border, are being invaded by a hostile (culturally speaking) population. They are about to "liberalize" themselves out of existence. I believe immigration is good for a nation/culture; new blood keeps things stimulated. The current immigration trends for the EU, and, yes, the US, are entirely out of control. I need rain, I don't need a flood!
The lesson for Americans is to NOT replicate the self-destructive behavior of the Europeans. America must not emulate the labor, legal, foreign policy, and multi-cultural policies of the EU. America must focus on being competitive and successful in all arenas.
Aaron at 10:14 AM, 1/20/05
There are different proposals on the table, many Democrats want to pour more money into the system, Republicans are fighting over whether the system should be abolished entirely, or, more commonly, turned into a system where you're required to invest the money you would've given the government into a private retirement account.
However, SS is quite small, not a retirement fund, but really just a safety net for those who plan badly for their own retirement, compared to many European countries where retirement itself is a government matter; and our birth rate is sufficient that our native population continues to grow. It's not like it is in, say, Italy, where retirement payments threaten to run the government straight into the ground.
Having said all that though, surely the US isn't immune ?Not at all, but we have the advantange that our welfare system is much, much smaller. Right now, reforming Social Security (the system you pay into to help support the elderly) is a major issue of contention, since it's what you call "a ponzi scheme": Instead of paying into it for your own old age, you end up paying directly to the elderly right now, and it doesn't hold up mathematically as the birthrate declines. (SS money is taken directly out of your paycheck, like a withheld tax.)
There are different proposals on the table, many Democrats want to pour more money into the system, Republicans are fighting over whether the system should be abolished entirely, or, more commonly, turned into a system where you're required to invest the money you would've given the government into a private retirement account.
However, SS is quite small, not a retirement fund, but really just a safety net for those who plan badly for their own retirement, compared to many European countries where retirement itself is a government matter; and our birth rate is sufficient that our native population continues to grow. It's not like it is in, say, Italy, where retirement payments threaten to run the government straight into the ground.
TM Lutas at 10:20 AM, 1/20/05
The real question is how many new nuclear powers will come out of the collapse of the current security regime. For a lot of those E. European countries, they just don't want to become colonies again, of Germany or Russia. Romania got the Cernavoda nuclear complex in exchange for the abandonment of its nuclear ambitions. If it gets abandoned because it's too far for the US to afford to protect it, it'll go nuke, and fairly quickly. How many others will be on the list?
The real question is how many new nuclear powers will come out of the collapse of the current security regime. For a lot of those E. European countries, they just don't want to become colonies again, of Germany or Russia. Romania got the Cernavoda nuclear complex in exchange for the abandonment of its nuclear ambitions. If it gets abandoned because it's too far for the US to afford to protect it, it'll go nuke, and fairly quickly. How many others will be on the list?
Aaron at 10:22 AM, 1/20/05
Additional cause for my concern is my deminishing faith in the Central Intelligence Agency.I agree wholeheartedly, but it's worth noting that there's nothing in that report that hasn't been reported in the mainstream media for years, and, in fact, concluded by the EU's own research projects years ago. They've been hurtling towards disaster for years, and they don't know how to stop. I question that idea that it'll happen within 15 years, though.
Gloria Poole Pappas at 12:32 AM, 2/2/05
I studied some of the information from EUobservor about the EU Constitution. That Constitution is more like an agreement to control the assets (socialism) of the member states while denying them even the right to vote on the issues! Their agreement is for consensus, not a vote call. That news made me think how in the world are they supposed to come to an agreement without a roll call and why would they want too? There are so many problems in the EU that it is really shocking. Their laizzez-faire atttitude about the population decline, the public policies bringing about the population decline,their hostility toward Christianity, their "anything goes" approach that has been shown to be a miserable failure everywhere, are all the problems, not to mention that several of the members states have legalized prostitution [Germany and Netherlands] ! The idea that their women have to start "trading sex" [for money] is NOT a good sign. That is usually what happens to a desperately poor nation that has no resources , and no morals simultaneously.
It seems to me that the best thing for them to do is get right with God and seek His answers!
I studied some of the information from EUobservor about the EU Constitution. That Constitution is more like an agreement to control the assets (socialism) of the member states while denying them even the right to vote on the issues! Their agreement is for consensus, not a vote call. That news made me think how in the world are they supposed to come to an agreement without a roll call and why would they want too? There are so many problems in the EU that it is really shocking. Their laizzez-faire atttitude about the population decline, the public policies bringing about the population decline,their hostility toward Christianity, their "anything goes" approach that has been shown to be a miserable failure everywhere, are all the problems, not to mention that several of the members states have legalized prostitution [Germany and Netherlands] ! The idea that their women have to start "trading sex" [for money] is NOT a good sign. That is usually what happens to a desperately poor nation that has no resources , and no morals simultaneously.
It seems to me that the best thing for them to do is get right with God and seek His answers!
E. Goldstein at 09:22 PM, 3/16/05
How about:
"The current US warfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering of its strategy and, at worst, disintegration of the US Dollar, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role."
The EU may last a bit longer, as a kind of formaldehyde for the living-dead body-politic of Europe.
Maybe they could take a leaf out of the USA's book, and find a nice little humanitarian war in some resource-zone to keep us all gainfully occupied. It's not as though they haven't before.
How about:
"The current US warfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering of its strategy and, at worst, disintegration of the US Dollar, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role."
The EU may last a bit longer, as a kind of formaldehyde for the living-dead body-politic of Europe.
Maybe they could take a leaf out of the USA's book, and find a nice little humanitarian war in some resource-zone to keep us all gainfully occupied. It's not as though they haven't before.
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