Spain Super Serious

6:45 pm, 2/3/10

If you've been following the news in Europe at all, you've heard about Greece's debt problems and the ensuing crisis it's created for the European Union and, potentially, for the Euro currency itself.

With other weaker European economies in danger of following after Greece and fears growing that stronger European economies might be dragged in with them, Spain wanted to send a message.

Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, Spain's prime minister, said in Davos this week: "We are a serious country and we will fulfil our promises."

Their plan for fulfilling those promises was to do the inevitable: rein in their fiscal policy and increase their retirement age, to 67. Predictably, workers are displeased, and it's now unclear whether Spain will be able to follow through. A Fistful of Euros:

Unfortunately, enthusiasm for the new-found seriousness doesn't seem to have lasted long, since this just morning (and only three days after that strong demonstration of will for change) the Spanish press inform us that Elena Salgado - faced with strike threats from the main trade union organisations - is having second thoughts, and is willing to be "flexible", since the proposal for pension reform, was only that, a proposal which is up for negotiation.

It was six years ago that European leaders admitted their dream of unseating the United States as the world's leading economic power was a Quixotic farce, and five years ago that the Central Intelligence Agency predicted that the European Union would collapse by 2020 without massive welfare entitlement reforms.

At every turn, those reforms have been foiled by riot-prone mobs who have no intention of working even a single additional moment to get their state-guaranteed benefits. Now that the short-sightedness is finally coming home to roost, it's going to be interesting to see how it plays out in the short-term, and, in fact, whether the European Union itself will survive the next decade.

Given widespread opposition in many European countries to surrendering their national sovereignty under a European Constitution and the apparent urgency felt by Eurocrats to consolidate their power, I wouldn't bet on it. The Lisbon Treaty, after all, only passed Ireland (the only country where they couldn't suppress a public referendum) after two attempts, and then only through fear and intimidation that cashed in on economic worries.

It was lashing with rain but that wasn't the full reason Paul Callaghan was finding it hard to muster up the enthusiasm to mark his X. "I'm here because I have a vote and, basically, I've been told what to do with it," he said gloomily as he stood outside one of Dublin's polling stations in O'Connell Street on Saturday afternoon. "I've no job and neither has my wife. Every time I turn on the television some politician tells me that only the EU can save this country now. I don't want to do it, I feel disloyal, but today I am voting yes. It isn't how I voted 16 months ago, but I've been left feeling I have no choice....We all have this horrible feeling that we will be made to do this referendum over and over again until we return the answer they want."

Veronica Meehan, who lost her job six months ago and the day before polling had queued outside the city's Marks & Spencer's store along with 699 other hopefuls vying for a part-time Christmas job, said she resented voting yes but felt she had no other choice. "...Part of me feels I have been brainwashed. That unless I vote yes and turn myself into a European the Irish economy will never be in the state to provide people like me with employment.

Siobhan Keenan, who had braved the now torrential rain, stood huddled in a doorway patiently waiting. Her concern, she said, was the loss of the ideal that Ireland has always held dear. "...I am voting yes, but I feel that I have been bullied into it. Ireland has always been proud of its independence. Today we are letting it slip away. Now we will be swamped in a wider Europe."

The final signatory, Czech President Vaclav Klaus, gave what may be the most openly disdainful signing speech in recent memory.

At some point, something is going to happen that pushes the wrong people over the wrong line, and resentment will probably build rather rapidly. The real question is whether Europeans will blame each other, falling back on traditional animosities, or direct their anger at the institutions of the European Union itself.